Laying your hard earned money on sporting events can be really fun or ruin your day, life, marriage and bank account. We all get a rush when we win big. That same rush is felt when we lose. It is this feeling that entices us to keep coming back for more.
This guide is set-up to help you survive the season without wanting to hang yourself Monday morning. I am by no means an expert, but if you follow a few simple rules and keep your composure, this season of gambling will not put you into cardiac arrest.
– Mr. K.
3 SIMPLE RULES TO FOLLOW:
1.) DO NOT CHASE
Your picks have not been covering all day. You’re pissed off, maybe even a little drunk and there is only one more game on the board. So, to make it all back you put big money on Grambling State vs Colgate. Pathetic. DO NOT DO IT!
Same is true if you are up all day. Bottom line: stop taking shitty games. Do not bet just to bet. That’s what degenerates do.
2.) DO YOUR RESEARCH
You are at the bar with a co-worker and he says “Boston College is a LOCK this weekend”. So you put big money on BC with no other knowledge of the game but from a guy who has one big hard on for New England teams. In fact, he probably spent all 4 years in Boston getting drunk at *Bunker Hill and going to Sox games all while using some shit, fake Boston accent.
*Bunker Hill is a community college in the Boston area.
Comes at your from all angles:
a.) Drinking: inhibits your ability to think about what you are putting your cold hard cash on. Have your games set and stick to it. If not, then in the morning your head AND your wallet will be hurting.
b.) Heart over Reality: Laying cash on your favorite team who has no business being favored by 10. “They’re gonna CRUSH that team bro”. The only thing getting crushed will be your bank account.
c.) Money: Stop laying down money you do not have.
d.) Making 80 bets each weekend. Do not do it!
1.) READ, READ, READ
– Simply peruse articles throughout the week on games. Get a feel for what others are saying. Score predictions, analysis of players, etc. Now, do not take these predictions as 100% truths, just use as a baseline.
– Go to forums to find out what the public is betting on, what the “sharp” money is on and general blogs to get a feel for what is being said.
– Always know what the line opened at and follow its movement. These line movements can tell you which way to bet or to not bet at all. REMEMBER, VEGAS KNOWS – so that opening line and its movement is key.
– Look at how your team performed last week or previous weeks.
Week 1: Temple (+10) @ Vanderbilt
Temple not only wins, but cruises to a victory 38-10.
OSU (-8) @ Navy
OSU had a tough time beating Navy, barely covering until the 4th quarter 42-27.
YOUR BET: Week 2: Navy (-3) @ Temple
Your thought: Why is Navy favored on the road when they were “blown out” by OSU and Temple cruised to a victory?
Here is where some simple research comes into play:
Vanderbilt turned the ball over 7 times and went 2-14 on third downs and only secured 4 first downs. Temple scored 21 points off turnovers alone and received a good field position on many drives.
Navy kept the game close until the 4th quarter, rushed for 200 yards, 8-12 on third downs, etc.
CONCLUSION: Without research, many would take Temple +3, at home based on last weeks score alone. BUT, Vegas knows and with some simple research you would have uncovered that Vegas is TELLING YOU to lay money on Navy.
2.) Try and Get the Best Line Possible
– Research on the line movement will hopefully allow you to understand when to put your bet in. Most of the time, I will wait right before game time (lots of sharp money moves the line dramatically before game time) BUT there are instances when I feel Vegas is too generous and want to take a line early.
3.) Also Consider These Items When Doing Research:
– Let down games. These follow after huge wins and/or losses.
– Big home games (senior day, homecoming, etc.)
– Rivalry games (no matter how shitty the school, they will play up when it means more at heart)
– Home field and what that means
– How teams play on the road in certain conditions
4.) Items you should rarely consider:
– Team A is 1-4 ATS at home under the lights, Team B is 8-1 against Team A, The under has hit 8 of last 12 road games, etc etc.
**Who gives a shit. Look at the game at hand. It’s all about match-ups and the line itself.
– Injuries: This one is tricky. Of course if Team A’s stud QB is out, then that gives them less of a chance to cover. BUT, look at line movement and where the money is being placed. Sometimes, you can take advantage of bad news by placing money on huge line jumps. In the end, you can always NOT BET on bad news.
SMART MONEY TIPS
1.) Always maximize your gains or minimize your losses by covering yourself with other bets (called a hedge).
Example: SDSU (+14.5) vs NC. You lay $100 on SDSU.
After the first half, SDSU is winning by 7.
Half time line is NC (-6).
NC was a huge favorite before the game began, are at home and SDSU scored one TD off of a shitty turnover.
Therefore, you lay $50 on NC second half. This can have 1 of 3 outcomes:
1.) YOU WIN BOTH BETS if NC simply wins the game by less than 14.5
YOU WIN ONE BET GUARANTEED:
2.) SDSU wins the game by more than 1, your winnings are shrunk but covered your losses (#3)
3.) NC somehow comes back and wins by 14.5 – you would have lost the whole $100 but now you minimized your losses by taking NC second half.
**This strategy I ALWAYS use on over/unders. Many times, you can meet in the middle.
2.) Always STAGGER your PARLAYS so you can make a HEDGE.
Parlays blow as it is, but if you do make them, stagger the start times of your match-ups.
Example: 2 team parlay PSU (+250) is at 12 pm and USC (-300) is at 5 pm. You bet $100.
PSU wins and you win that leg of the parlay.
To hedge, you then put 50 on USC’s opponent at (+250)
So, if USC wins you would get Parlay winnings minus the $50. If USC loses, you would lose the parlay but make $125 on hedge. Hence, still winning money.
!!!!!!!Some money is better than no money.
**For the last leg of your parlay it is always nice to have an underdog or a positive money line to make a nice hedge.
3.) Always Bet proportional to your bank roll.
Experts say you should be only making bets that are 2% of your bank roll.
Example: You have $1000 in your budget for gambling. Your bets should only be $20 at a time. This can be adjusted if you have been winning and want to up your pay-outs. Same can be true if you are losing, minimize your bets.
The swings are too damn large if you bet too high. Before you know it you are deep with the bookie and you do not want that!
REMEMBER: A $100 loss on a bet is really a $200 swing on your account – adds up quick.
DO NOT CHASE!!!!
If you follow this simple formula you will have more fun and a longer gambling season.
4.) DO NOT BE AFRAID!
Many times, there is a great bet in baseball and one in football. Cross sports and put in that PARLAY baby! But always stagger the start times.
Football gets a lot of action on the books. If you like other sports, they could be worth your while to do some research on. For instance, I love women’s tennis and laying money line bets. Parlays are a great way to make some cash also.
NO ONE is an expert. I have lost more times than I can count. But with some smart decisions and DISCIPLINE you can come out on top and have fun while doing it.
Remember, a good gambling weekend has a 60% win ratio. Sometimes you will crush the books, other times you will get crushed.
Stay the course and do not play on tilt! GOOD LUCK!