Recreational and Degenerate Gamblers Alike:
Each week this page will be dedicated to my NCAA Football Picks against the spread. You will find the early games posted up by Thursday morning. Stop back throughout the week for a preview of the weekend games with full analysis by weeks end. The games posted are in no means LOCKS of the week but they are definitely worth a look into.
– Mr. K.
**Last week my few picks were great. Too bad I did not follow my own advice, once again playing on tilt like a lunatic. Gonna try and narrow down a few games and place some big parlays this week.
**NOTE: Thanksgiving week is tough due to extenuating circumstances. Keep your eyes on the news for the following:
– Senior Day
– Any student problems (i.e. a stud RB has no family, may be down in the dumps for the game. Opposite as well, they play inspired football)
– Student travel during a holiday (road teams are tough to cover for this. Look for value in the dog, especially at home)
– Rivalry games
– Teams looking for bowl eligibility or ones who clinched last week and are playing for nothing.
**These tips may not seem like much, but if you have paid attention throughout the years Thanksgiving weekend is always a wild, crazy ride.
LSU (-3) @ Texas A&M (WIN)
The line tells me to go with LSU. This is a team that could not put up points in their last outing vs Arkansas and only scored 13 vs ‘Bama and 7 vs Mizz. Somehow though they are favored by 3. With a total of 51, I can see them squeaking out a 27-24 victory. However, football and Thanksgiving is a religion down south, especially in Texas. I think the safer play is the on the over @ 51. Let’s hope for some turkey day touch downs. I like each team putting up 30.
TCU @ Texas (+6.5)
At first glance I love TCU. However, with the last home game of the season and Texas playing so well as of late, I like them to win OUTRIGHT. Expect them to give all they have against TCU on turkey day. Either way, Texas covers.
12: UCF (-12) @ USF (WIN)
USF is god awful. I do not think an inspired Senior day can do anything to help them. UCF is playing at high level right now. They will destroy USF who cannot move the ball to save their life.
Nebraska @ Iowa (pk)
Line opened at +3 and is now a pick ’em. Iowa is coming off a tough loss to Wisconsin in which they fought back. Nebraska is decimated after they let up the lead to Minnesota to lose 28-24. Iowa strikes with a last game, at home, win.
Arkansas finally got their upset win last week vs Ole Miss, but lost their starting QB. No worries though because his younger brother is the back-up and showed competence by driving them down the field later in the game (to miss a FG, FYI). However, even though Mizz is unpredictable, I like them winning at home to win the SEC East and play in the SEC title game.
CSU is 10-1 and rolling right now. Air Force will not only be out their starting QB but their starting RB is done for the season. Really F’s up their triple option game plan. CSU rolls by 3 touchdowns.
ASU (+4.5) @ Arizona
I honestly think Arizona wins this game this year at home. However, in a match-up with so many implications I will take the points.
3:30 Stanford (+5.5) @ UCLA (WIN)
Somehow UCLA weaseled their way into the PAC-12 Championship game if they can pull out a win. Maybe Stanford can play spoiler, but I think not. However, I will take the points yet again with a team playing to upset the Bruins.
8: Virginia @ Vy Tech
DO NOT TOUCH THIS GAME. Both teams need a win to be bowl eligible. Rivalry game, both sides paying tough. However, I will say look at line movement before the start. Virginia is coming off a huge win vs Miami and Vy Tech honestly blows at moving the football.
Both teams need a win to be bowl eligible. I will go with the team showing great strides as of late, especially at home.
The tail of two trash squads. UTSA has a pretty good defense but an awful offense and once again another one of their QB’s is injured or being rotated for someone else. North Texas has an awful defense but can score a few points here and there. Gonna be ugly and UTSA may pull out the win, but not by much. 13-10
ODU needs one win to be bowl eligible and they have more offensive might than FAU. Line opened at 5.5 and now is at 3. ODU all day. Buy it now @ 3.5 because by game time you will pay more juice.
Georgia Tech @ Georgia (-14)
Keep an eye on this game because if Mizz loses Friday, Georgia plays in the SEC ‘ship with a win. Either way I think they crush, but if this is the case, bet the farm that they most definitely will.
Kentucky @ Louisville (-13)
Kentucky has proven they cannot stop anyone. Losing to Tenn 50-16 and Georgia 63-31. Expect L-ville to get it done HUGE at home for the Seniors.
Utah (-10) @ Colorado
Coming off an awful loss to ‘Zona, I expect the Utes to get it together this week against a Colorado squad who has struggled to score points as of late. However, be aware that even though Colorado is 2-9, they have played the PAC tough this year.
Texas State impressed with their win over Ark State. Georgia State is an atrocious 1-10. Texas State rolls to improve to 7-5 for a nice bowl bid.
Miss St. (-2.5) @ Ole Miss
No research. Riding the Bulldogs.
Tennessee (-14) @ Vandy
Vandy may be on the hunt to put together a better effort than their 51-0 defeat at the hands of Miss St. last week. But, the Vols need a win to be bowl eligible and have been playing great as of late. Vandy blows, Vols ROLL.
BYU has already excepted an invite to the Miami Beach Bowl. Cal needs a win to make a bowl. I will take Cal all day – but I can see them winning by 3/4 missing the cover by a shit margin. Either way, roll with Cal.
UL Monroe @ Georgia Southern (-14)
Southern just put a petition in to be able to participate in a bowl this year (The NCAA has rules pertaining to the first two years of a new FBS team in regards to attendance, wins, etc.). Southern feels they have met this criteria. To accentuate this point, they will CRUSH at home. Also, they have been a covering machine this year.
Why does Hawaii want to play a meaningless last game on the road, the day after Thanksgiving? Oh that’s right, they don’t. Fresno State is not great, but after their magical win at Nevada last week, they need one more for a bowl bid. Fresno cruises.
Once again, these huge games I do not research. Bama is Bama and is looking for revenge from last year. I hate to use the word “revenge” because all the sports outlets are. Bottom line, ‘Bama is way more talented, especially at home. No one will stop Cooper. ROLL TIDE.
8: Oregon (-17.5) @ Oregon State (WIN)
I like Oregon, obviously. Oregon State blows at more moments than not. I think the smarter play is on the under @ 67.5. Mannion won’t be able to keep up with The Ducks. Ducks win 40-21.
10:15 Nevada (-10) @ UNLV (WIN)
Nevada needs redemption after that surprise loss at the hands of Fresno State.
ALL TIME Mr. Money Bags: 51 of 107 (48%)
I am an avid gambler whose hobby is researching games and trying to bust the books each and every weekend. The games listed have been analyzed up and down (email me, I will show you my spreadsheet!). By no means will I touch every game, but if I do it is sure to be ones I have listed on this page. Will you always be a winner with my picks? NO! Will I mush some bets? YES! But in the end, I usually end up on top. Please feel free to post your picks ATS and comment at will.