Recreational and Degenerate Gamblers Alike:
College Football is back babbbbbyyy! I love the summer but nothing puts a smile on my face more than wasting an entire Saturday in a sweatshirt eating, drinking and gambling all from the comfort of my own couch. The bitch of it is, this year’s action is during labor day weekend. But don’t fret, I am sure your favorite beach bar will allow you to view a few games all while going full degenerate with your bookie via your smartphone.
There is no tougher week handicapping games than week 1. Many of my friends will not even touch it. I, however, like to take advantage of over inflated lines based on a teams previous year’s success. Buyer beware though, the first week is all about plug and play. In that, coaches start 2 QB’s or are constantly shifting running backs and wide outs. Defensively, teams usually hold steady on their front lines without much change.
This week’s picks are based on a few simple things:
1.) The line itself
2.) Over or under inflation
3.) Gut feelings
So….peruse my picks below, take them if you wish. Each week this page will be dedicated to my NCAA Football Picks against the spread. The games posted are in no means locks of the week but are definitely worth a look. Games in which I have a vested interest in will be labeled with Mr. Moneybags:
Also, check out my guide to surviving the season: Sports Gambling: Surviving the Season
6 – North Carolina vs South Carolina
This is it, first game of the season and I am hoping to see lots of action. This game has a last minute play winner feel to it. Therefore, the only play I may make on this game is the over. Set at 64 with a line of -2 to the Gamecocks, expect a close game in the 20’s or 30’s. I expect the latter.
Bet the over @64 and get paid.
LOSS! Boo…what a horrible game. End zone turnovers are the worst. At least Mr. Moneybags wasn’t on that one!
8 – Western Kentucky (-2) @ Vanderbilt (PUSH)
Nothing like road chalk to start it off right. Western Kentucky can light up the scoreboard and with an over/under set at 64.5, I do not see that stopping this game. Returning stars Allen (RB) and Dangerfield (WR) will once again be dominate with returning QB Brandon Doughty under center. Vanderbilt is rebuilding and should have better play going into this year. However, they are not sure who they will start at QB. I will go WKU all day even on the news of a non-participating Dangerfield.
Half-time paid off for WKU at pick ’em (could have lost by 2)
9 – TCU vs Minnesota
I put this game on the board to say, DO NOT BET IT. Texas Christian should dominate this year but opening games on the road are tough. Especially against a Gopher team whose only loss at home last year was against Ohio State by 7. Even since 2013 they have been 4-1 ATS as home dogs. Watch this game, do not lay any action.
Hope you didn’t touch this game. If anything, went with the gophers!
UTSA vs Arizona (-31.5)
UTSA was a surprise school last year chock full of Seniors who played with a lot of heart. I’d take the 31.5 if this was the case, but alas, UTSA lost them all to graduation. Take the large number and expect ‘Zona to roll opening night at home.
7 – Baylor vs SMU
Style points count and Baylor loves to flash. Even without the likes of Bryce Petty, expect Art Briles to be a scumbag and run the score up, even on the road to show the nation they mean business. Baylor wins by 30-40. I do not see SMU putting up anything over 14.
**This game may be a tight cover, so watch taking the huge road chalk
Even though the under on this game was a LOSS, it was still the right move. Even after 21 total points being scored in the first two minutes of the game, the over only hit by 2 points! SMU had no business scoring 21 points and that garbage time TD bomb by Baylor’s back-up was dumb….”good loss” – bet the right way if you took the under.
12 – Stanford vs Northwestern (+11.5) WIN
Stanford struggles early in the season and NW are no push overs at home. Last year they beat PSU, Wisconsin and Notre Dame OUTRIGHT. Again though, my money will be on the under because one thing does not change and that is Stanford football. Loving 8 minute drives in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Stanford wins 24-10.
3:30 – UTEP vs Arkansas (-33) WIN
Arkansas 55, UTEP 6
3:30 – BYU (+7) vs Nebraska WIN
Taysom Hill is back and BYU is better than ever. They need to make a splash on the national stage to be recognized in the college playoff. Their first four games are tough, but I expect them to win this opening game vs Nebraska. Play it safe, take the points.
Virginia @ UCLA (-20)
Back door cover by Virginia…cool. nice D Bruins. If you hit the Bruins at -17 before game time you were a winne!
Bowling Green (+21) vs Tennessee
Tennessee is supposed to compete in the SEC this year. However, 21 is a huge number. I like BG scoring late to keep it within three scores, especially with returning players at QB (Matt Johnson), RB (Travis Greene) and WR (Roger Lewis)
BG hung tough until late in the 3rd and 4th.
7 – Akron vs Oklahoma (-31.5) WIN
I love Oklahoma this year. This is a heart pick but I think new QB Baker Mayfield has something to prove and they have a slew of talented receivers. New offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley, from East Carolina, will bring the same explosive plays the Pirates played with last season. I LOVE OKIIIEEEEEE! This game feels like a 37-7 game, this is why maybe the under @57.5 may be payday as well.
7:30 – Georgia Southern @ West Virginia WIN
7:30 – ASU vs Texas A&M (-3) WIN
This line tells you two things, bet A&M and take the over. In a close game of shoot ’em out teams on a “neutral site” (NRG Stadium in Houston) in prime-time you can expect a lot of points and a close game. I’m taking the
over @ 66.5. Final score: Aggies 44, ASU 37
**The over is public city but I will parlay that with A&M winning. It’s a “fun” bet to watch a “fun” game.
The over was public city….second half over was a nice bet because it still made the game over 20 points less than original. It hit easily.
7:30 – Texas vs Notre Dame (-9.5) WIN
This is my money play of the week. Texas is slowly getting there with Charlie Strong at the helm, but I love the Irish and what they bring to the table on defense. At least 3 players who are NFL worthy next year on that side of the ball.
8 – Wisconsin vs Alabama (-10.5) WIN
When has ‘Bama ever won by less than 10? Answer is: rarely, if ever, in the past 5 years. They always find a way late in the 3rd or 4th quarter. ROLL TIDE!
Nice under…BOOOOO. another back door “cover” by Wisconsin on the under.
Games with no current spread with match-ups I like:
12 – South Dakota State @ Kansas (WIN)
Kansas BLOWS. If this is positive points to SDSU, I’m, slamming it.
3:30 – Howard @ Appalachian State (WIN)
App State should be heavily favored, either way – BLOW OUT city
3:30 – Sam Houston State @ Texas Tech (WIN)
5 – Grambling State @ Cal (WIN)
BLOW OUT by CAL
7:30 – McNeese State @ LSU (cancelled)
BLOW OUT LSU
Opening Week Mr. Moneybags: 8 – 5 – 1 (62%)
Picks of the week: 1-1 (100%)
Follow me on twitter for up to the minute picks! @MrK_japery
The weekend in all yielded me a record of 17-7-1. WINNNNN!!!!!