Recreational and Degenerate Gamblers Alike:
Each week this page will be dedicated to my NCAA Football Picks against the spread. The games posted are in no means locks of the week but are definitely worth a look. Games in which I have a vested interest in will be labeled with Mr. Moneybags:
Week 1 Recap: What a great week to start! A 17-7 record will destroy any bookie and keep your pockets lined with green for a few weeks. If you just stuck to the site and didn’t follow me on twitter, Mr. Moneybags was 8-5-1 with the Notre Dame “game of the week” being a solid win as well.
Utah State @ Utah (-13.5)
I honestly hate this game. These two squads play each other to the grindstone each time out. However, the Utah State Aggie, Chuckie Keeton, played like dog shit last week vs Southern Utah going 16/33 with no TD’s and an interception. Now, this is probably a fluke and his play should be much better as the season continues but I do not have much faith in the rest of the squad either. Coming off a big win, expect Utah to get it done at home by 2 scores.
12 – Houston @ Lville, Over @54.5 (WIN)
Louisville put up a good fight last week against Auburn scoring 24 points in the second half but still fell short in a 31-24 loss, covering the 10 point spread. Houston did what they do best and put up 54 against Tennessee Tech in their home opener last week. Expect Louisville to come out on all cylinders opening day and put up at least 30. I have confidence Houston can score at least 21 as well. Over City!
12 – Oregon State @ Michigan (-14.5) WIN
Oregon State was a mess last week, mustering 26 points at home vs Weber State. 26 points on a line closing at 30 is not good. Harbaugh coached the shit out of Michigan and should have pulled out a win, but 3 untimely interceptions sealed their fate. Do I think Michigan is over valued in this game? Yes, slightly, but I still want to back them for their home opener against a Beaver team that will be just as sloppy on the road. Money is pushing this spread higher and higher, but I am still waiting for game time.
Buffalo @ PSU (-18.5)
If you are an avid, knowledgeable gambler, who watches a lot of the games, you should have recognized that this line is WHACKED. Buffalo is a solid MAC team who has one of the best returning quarterbacks (Licata) to play in the MAC this year. Last week he threw for 246 yards for 2 TD’s @ 77%. Buffalo destroyed Albany 51-14. Penn State, on the other hand, looked foolish against Temple mustering 180 yards of total offense, losing 27-10. A 10 year old Madden pro could call better plays than James Franklin last week. So, here is the question: Why is PSU favored by 3 scores? Vegas has a tendency to overvalue and undervalue certain teams, sometimes for the entire season. Is this what is happening here or does Vegas know something we do not? My gut says PSU will struggle this year and Buffalo can compete, therefore the +18 should be a steal. However, when things seem too easy they probably are. I think I will side with PSU purely in regards to my respect for Vegas. PSU wins big, at their home opener. If not, then Vegas does not know PSU and I learned my lesson early in the season.
Appalachian State (+19) @ Clemson
This is another game chosen purely for my respect to Vegas and the sharp money out there. Line opened at -21, but even with 75% of the public bets on Clemson, it still continues to fall. Clemson is going to win this game, but App State will put up a fight.
3:30 – Tulane @ Georgia Tech (-28.5) WIN
A lot of my research tells me Tulane has a good run D and last year at home they held the Yellow Jackets to 300 yards of total offense with a 6..something YPC. BLAH BLAH BLAH.. Tulane stinks, they were blown out by Duke giving up 2/3 of the total yards ON THE GROUND. G-Tech looked good as ever last week, expect them to do the same again. G-Tech wins BIG.
Hawaii @ Ohio State (-41)
3:30 – Notre Dame @ Virginia (+11.5) WIN
The public is driving this line through the roof! It is tough to bet against Notre Dame this game, especially when you know the talent they possess and how they played vs Texas. However, Virginia at home as double-digit dogs has not worked out for the favorite in recent memory. Go anti-public on this one and back Virginia to keep it close. Anything over +14 hop on! Side note: If ND covers this game, the public will think they are so great at sports gambling and end up losing their winnings on the 8 other road chalks they take later in the day. Be a BOSS and back Virginia, it’s the correct play.
3:30 – Fresno State @ Ole Miss (-30) WIN
All my research this week points to another Ole Miss blowout. I won’t bore you with all the details, but know this: In the past 3 years, Ole Miss has won and covered the spread of any team they play before Alabama. Just take The Rebels to destroy a slow, west coast, Bulldog squad.
4 – Middle Tennessee (+35.5) vs Alabama WIN
‘Bama will win this game, however with Wisconsin in the past and Ole Miss on the horizon, expect them to let up late for Middle Tennessee to easily cover this game. Fun fact: Alabama has only covered 6 of their last 20 non-conference games.
Toledo @ Arkansas (-21.5)
Would have liked this game at 3 scores and not 4, either way the Razorbacks get it done against a poor MAC team.
7 – Arizona (-11.5) @ Nevada WIN
Arizona only beat UTSA last week by 10, it was not a close game by any means, but none the less, the Wildcats could not stop the Roadrunners. I expect ‘Zona to clean up a lot of things on D and show the country they mean business. With Nevada no longer having their star Cody Fajaro under center and Rich Rodriguez being a point loving scumbag, expect a lot of points from Anu Solomon and company. Side note: Take advantage of this line before big money hits it Saturday because at the moment it is under valued. Should be closer to 14-16.
I love ROAD CHALK this week, hence, Anu and company are my PLAY OF THE WEEK!
7 – Missouri @ Arkansas State(+10.5) WIN
8 – Ball State @ Texas A&M WIN
I wanna back Ball State for a letdown game from A&M. However, the Aggies have too many weapons, Ball State is ranked in the 100’s for pass D and thirdly – the MAC against the SEC usually is blowout city. Waiting for game time but thinking Aggies.
Idaho (+43) @ USC
USC is going to win and win by A LOT of points. However, I like Idaho’s chances of scoring 14 in this game, especially late. For the Trojans to cover that, they would need almost 60 points. Let public money drive this higher and take Idaho.
Temple @ Cincy (-6.5)
Let down game, on the road against a good offense. I will take Gunner Kiel and Cincy all day. Side note: Cincy’s defense is not good but neither is Temple’s offense. I like the Bearcats to simply score 1 more TD than Temple.
8 – Rice (+15) @ Texas WIN
All sorts of whacky things are going on at Texas right now and one of them is play calling duties being taken away from assistant coach Shawn Watson. Instead, wide receiver coach Jay Norvell will be making the calls. This could be a good thing but I will put my money on the rust factor. Take Rice to keep it close.
8 – Oregon @ Michigan State
I like the Spartans at home but this game is tough. Just watch and enjoy because to lay action on this is stupid. If anything, take a half-time line that is more suited to the situation.
Second half Oregon!
10:15 – Boise State @ BYU (+2.5) WIN
Once again Taysom Hill is out for the season, bringing in Tanner Mangum for BYU. Last year they rallied around this kid and this year will be no different. Boise State looked awful against a Washington team that STINKS. I’ll take BYU at their home opener any day.
Opening Week Mr. Moneybags: 8 – 5 – 1 (62%)
Second Week Mr. Moneybags: 5 – 2 – 0 (71%)
Picks of the week: 2-2 (100%)
Follow me on twitter for up to the minute picks! @MrK_japery
Also, check out my guide to surviving the season: Sports Gambling: Surviving the Season