Recreational and Degenerate Gamblers Alike:
Each week this page will be dedicated to my NCAA Football Picks against the spread. The games posted are in no means locks of the week but are definitely worth a look. Games in which I have a vested interest in will be labeled with Mr. Moneybags:
Week 2 Recap: Mr. Moneybags was at it again, finishing 5-2 for the weekend. Ohio State was a disappointing loss because they should have blown out Hawaii. Instead, they decided to play like they did not even care. I loved the Virginia pick covering over Notre Dame – all that public money got flushed down the toilet. Once again The Pick of the Week was a winner with ‘Zona annihilating Nevada on the road. I played on tilt a bit this weekend after losing some picks early on but came but strong with some nice half-time action. In all I had a winning week, but not as good if I just followed Mr. Moneybags @ 71%
This week: I am not liking too many games on the board, so I may have to top out at 5 or so moneybag picks. I wish I could also find value in some dogs, but the favorites seem the way to go. However, going anti-public is always a sure bet and there will also be lots of opportunity in those half-time lines. IMPORTANT NOTE: In the NCAA and NFL Week 1’s, bookies got annihilated by the favorites. Expect these lines to represent their losses and bet the dog or go anti-public if you are unsure or the line has not moved much since opening.
Clemson (-6) @ Louisville
After two losses it is tough to go against The Cardinals at home to lose by more than 6. This is their last shot at salvaging the season. However, I love Clemson’s front line and the fact that their QB, Watson, will be playing against the team that took him out last year. I expect motivation on both sides to get the job done and this game could be decided by 3-4 points. In the end, I am going with the more explosive and experienced defense to force a few turnovers on the young Cardinal QB Bolin who in himself is explosive and athletic but may get ahead of himself in this one (he did lead two 4th quarter drives last week against Houston which ended in 7 each). In my heart of hearts this may be a loss, but I laid money down early in the week @4 so I need to be honest and tell my readers my money is on this game. Road chalk, Public city, give me that action boss, TIGERS!
I knew this game was scum. Clemson turned the ball over too many times to cover this game by 6. Starting 0-1. Hope to clean it up this weekend.
8 – Florida State (-7) @ Boston College WIN
It is so tough to bet against Boston College at home but I think FSU remembers having to play this team all 4 quarters last year to squeeze out a win. FSU is no Howard or Maine (who BC rolled to the tune of 76-0 and 24-3, respectively the last two weeks). I love taking The Seminoles to come out and be a quick hitter, then slamming BC second half for a comeback to hedge and maybe win both.
**If I am up from Thursday, laying winnings on Florida State to get it done. Not confident enough to lay down dough if I am not up.
12:30 – Northwestern @ Duke (-3.5)
This line is so shady I do not know what to think. Duke is 2-0 beating up on poor competition in Tulsa (37-7) and North Carolina Central (55-0). Northwestern is now ranked 23rd in the country and beat Stanford two weeks ago at home, allowing them 6 whole points. Yes, 2 freaking field goals. I think this is a classic sneak move by the books in that the public sees “23rd rank” and plus points and hops all over it. In fact, books are reporting that over 95% of the money line bets are on Northwestern. I do not like this game, but will put money on it just to see if I am correct. Dukies by 3 at home.
Georgia State @ Oregon (-45.5)
An 11 am start time is not good for any team. I’d expect Oregon to come out a little sluggish 1st quarter but end up blowing out this team for the game – I will take Oregon after a loss, at home, at -60. DUCKS!
News: Oregon’s QB Adams may have a broken finger. They will still win this game by a lot, just may not cover if they take him out early.
2:30 – Rice (-7.5) @ North Texas WIN
Rice did lose to Texas last week but always plays with heart (they covered the 15 point spread in the final minute of the game). They also had 30 first downs to Texas’s 11. Most of their points were let up on poor special teams play and interceptions. North Texas has only played one game thus far and lost to SMU 31-13 (whom I still think is stinky). Even though it is the Mean Green’s home opener, I like Rice opening C-USA play with a double digit win.
3 – Memphis @ Bowling Green WIN
Memphis destroyed the worst team in college football last week 55-23 but allowed the Jayhawks 360 yards in total offense (most of which came in the first half and not in “garbage time”). In fact, they have not played anyone of caliber. Bowling Green has played the likes of Tennessee and Maryland. They hung tough against the Vols and beat Maryland OUTRIGHT. Now, as long as they are not hungover from this win, they have the fire power to beat Memphis. Unfortunately, as I write this article, this line is speaking to me that Memphis should win this game because it is BGSU who should be favored. In the end, both teams have excellent returning QB’s, a slew of weapons at their disposal and poor defenses. This game will be a back and forth slugfest so the over @78.5 seems plausible. Keep an eye on this one at half and do some calculation on the o/u.
Temple (-10.5) at Umass
I cannot believe I am doing this but I am hopping on the Temple train. I want to bet against this team so bad because I still believe they are not that good. Their QB is less than serviceable and their offense is slow. Against Cincy last week most of their points came on turnovers and special teams. It was a poor Cincy defense that allowed two offensive TD’s from really bad drives (run, run, run, run). Umass is the same team as Cincy, high powered passing game, quick play, with an atrocious defense. Defense wins championships and Temple is on cloud nine. Tough to pick f’ing Temple to win by double digits but the AAC is wide open. The Owls get it done yet again…
Northern Illinois vs Ohio (-34.5)
How can Urban Meyer allow his team to play with NO HEART two weeks in a row. He lights fires under asses. That and the fact that NIU is a MAC team with a fast paced offense allows for Ohio State’s offense to be on the field for many, many minutes. OSU rolls, this one will get ugly late in the 3rd.
3:30 Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame (+2.5) WIN
The public loves to overreact. I will take this Dame team as home dogs any day. It is going to be a battle to stop Techs triple option, but I think this team is still poised to do great things. Dame as home DOGS!
Virginia Tech @ Purdue (+6.5)
South Carolina (+17) @ Georgia
Spurrier loves playing Georgia tough every year. Expect lots of points in this one.
Texas Tech @ Arkansas (-10.5) over @ 70.5
Arkansas was embarrassed last week losing to Toledo, giving up 239 yards in the air. Coming off the loss expect them to be fired up, during a prime time game, to score as many points as possible. Texas Tech’s defense is a joke, giving up a combined 544 rushing yards to the likes of UTEP and Sam Houston State (over 1000 yards in combined offense). Another fun fact: Texas Tech’s pass happy offense has not thrown for under 437 yards in their two games this season. With a spread of 12, Arkansas pulls out this game in a shoot out by at least 10, winning 55 – 37. OVER CITY!
Florida @ Kentucky (+3.5)
8 – South Alabama @ SDSU over @45 WIN
SDSU played Cal last week and it got ugly in the second half, losing 35-7. South Alabama is no Cal and I like the Aztec offense to get going. My play though is on the OVER of 45, purely for one reason: The last 14/16 SDSU games have gone under, something’s gotta give and I think this is the moment after a pathetic loss and a USA squad that loves turning the ball over. SDSU scores at least 35. If I am wrong, owell, I will just take it next week again!
Stanford @ USC (-10)
Stanford is stinky on the road and I think this line should be more. Stanford is not the same team it was a few years ago and does not run with the same heavy hitters on defense. USC is too potent on offense to let this game be within single digits. Taking the Trojans to get it done at home, in prime time, as my PLAY OF THE WEEK.
NOTE: This pick of the week scares me because the public is ALL OVER USC and the line has not moved much since opening. Wait till game-time to make a move and see what the sharps do. I am still going to take it regardless, unless something drastic happens to the line. Kessler and company are just too damn potent this year to not get it done against a PAC-12 foe on prime time television.
Ole Miss @ ‘Bama (-7)
Public loves Ole Miss after they put up over 70 their last two games. When is Saban ever favored by less than double digits at home? Answer: rarely BUT when he has been, he has lost the game OUTRIGHT. Wait till 9pm to see what the sharps do but I expect them to hit ‘Bama hard right before game time in a revenge situation.
This Week Mr. Moneybags: 2 – 8 – 0 (20%)
Last Week Mr. Moneybags: 5 – 2 – 0 (71%)
Season Mr. Moneybags: 13 – 7 – 1 (65%)
Picks of the week: 2-2 (100%)
Follow me on twitter for up to the minute picks! @MrK_japery
Also, check out my guide to surviving the season: Sports Gambling: Surviving the Season