Recreational and Degenerate Gamblers Alike:
I am revamping how I handle my weekly picks against the spread column. I used to post as many games as possible and then place Mr. Moneybags next to games in which I had a vested interest in. Over time, I have come to find out that this strategy will lose us not only money but our precious time. Here are my reasons: Posting so many games does not allow for in depth analysis of the ones that will give the best value. There are honestly maybe 3-5 games a week that present value. Some weeks higher, many weeks lower. Sometimes I feel I posted just to post. I am not sure all my readers are aware of line movement before game-time and what the public is currently riding on. This time around I will make it clear to be aware of line shifts which can make a good bet on Thursday look like a shit pick Saturday.
Just like you, I work in the real world where having time to do some research is non-existent and exhausting. I want to give you, the reader, the best possible information for your Saturday wagers. So, Mr. K. you ask, what will be different about this column?
Each Friday you can come here to look at my top 5 picks against the spread. As before, my Mr. Moneybags Pick of the Week will round out the top 5 as the best overall value on that week’s board. I hope they bring you closer to having a winning week.
Luck = Timing and PREPARATION. GOOD LUCK!
I still recommend you follow me on twitter for up to the minute game picks and halftime picks! @MrK_japery
#5: Kansas State (+8) @ Okie State (4pm)
As you read my picks this week, you will see a common trend: Low over/under totals and road dogs. This is a common practice among sharp gamblers for road dogs have covered over 67% of the time. For this game: I always feel Okie State is over rated. They are currently ranked 20th with a slop win over Texas, UTSA, Central Michigan and some shit FCS school. Kansas State is coached by The Wizard
Bill Snyder who is 179-110 against the spread as a road dog. As a unit, Kansas State is 3-0 on the year, coming off an early bye. Billy boy has had plenty of time to prepare for Okie, expect this game to be within 7.
#4: Ole Miss (-7) @ Florida (7pm)
The battle of two 4-0 SEC teams. The Rebels are receiving 77% of the public bets. Normally, I fade the public money but how can Ole Miss let this game go? Both of these teams have great defenses but their offenses swing in opposite directions. I think this is a public win and Ole Miss keeps it rolling, 27-13
#3: Louisville (+5) @ NC State (12:30pm)
Louisville has not shown me they can finish games, but their defense is still rock solid. They have lost to Clemson, Houston and Auburn by a combined score of 14. NC State boasts a 4-0 record against little competition (USA, ODU, EKY, and Troy). There is no denying their offense is potent but they have not shown they can hang against a real defense. It may be risky taking L-Ville here considering the unknown that is NC State. However, Louisville is going into a bye next week and may be prime for an upset. Take the points.
#2: Boston College (+7) @ Duke (3:30pm)
This is another tale this week of a low total and a road dog who has a solid defense. Boston College is stinky on offense and Doug Fluties cousin or whoever he is sucks ass at QB. However, Duke showed they SUCK against solid defenses losing to Northwestern 19-10. Plus, the public is not giving BC any love in this game. Hangover for Duke, against a solid defense – take the 7 and cash in.
#1: PICK OF THE WEEK: Minnesota (+3.5) @ Northwestern (12pm)
This game will be a matter of which defense lets up first. Minnesota is 3-1 with their lone loss coming at the hands of TCU whom they limited to 23 points in a 6 point loss. Northwestern is now 4-0 and ranked 16th in the nation. They had a hard fought game against Duke two weeks ago in which they were losing going into the half but came out strong and shut down the Duke offense to pull out a 19-10 win. Historically, in games with low point totals the road dog is a beast, as I stated above. Coupled with the fact that this game opened at 6.5 and has been bought down to 3.5 even with 70% of the public action going towards Northwestern, it seems like a rock solid cover, one that Minnesota can even win OUTRIGHT. I laid action on the money line (+150) and the +4 points on Wednesday. I suggest you do the same.
BEST OVER/UNDER BETS THIS WEEK:
#1: ECU @ SMU total 67 (4pm)
I am feeling this. Last team to score wins. 45-41.
#2: UTSA @ UTEP total 57 (8pm)
UTSA lets up 43.5 ppg and UTEP 45.3 ppg
OTHER GAMES I AM LEANING TO:
West Virginia (+7) @ Okie (12pm)
Another game where the road dog is competent and sports a good D. However, WV is still unproven against solid squads. Buyer Beware.
Texas @ TCU (-15) (12pm)
Purdue (+21.5) @ Mich State (12pm)
FIU @ UMASS (-3) (3pm)
Line jump, only reason.
Texas Tech @ Baylor (-17) (3:30pm in AT&T Stadium – “Cowboy” Stadium)
In a shootout I’d take the points BUT why is Baylor -17. Vegas is smarter than me, if Baylor gets two stops and a last score, game is theirs. I think TT is also hungover after their TCU loss last week. Baylor wins 75-45.
BGSU @ Buffalo (+8) (3:30 pm)
BGSU gets more press time this year than Buffalo. Buff hangs within a TD.
Alabama (+2.5) @ Georgia (3:30 pm)
Saban has got his squad laser focused. Expect a great game but I will take the points.
UNC @ Georgia Tech (-7.5) (3:30 pm)
G-Tech won’t let another game get away from them.
North Texas @ Southern Mississippi (-16) (7pm)
North Texas loves turning the ball over. Southern Miss has a QB that can play kids. BLOW OUT.
ASU @ UCLU (-13.5) (7:30pm)
I usually fade the public but with an upcoming bye, UCLA won’t stop now.
Hawaii @ Boise State (-24.5) (10:15pm)
Another public bet. This line may be slightly inflated due to Boise State’s blow-out win over Virgina last week where they benefited from more turnovers than I can count BUT coming into the blue turf against a solid defense will be tough to overcome. Boise 37-7.
Season Mr. Moneybags: 16 – 24 – 1 (40%) **two awful weeks
Picks of the week: 2-3 (40%)
Follow me on twitter for up to the minute picks! @MrK_japery
Also, check out my guide to surviving the season: Sports Gambling: Surviving the Season