Recreational and Degenerate Gamblers Alike:
Each Friday you can come here to take a look at my Top 5 Picks against the spread. There are maybe 3-5 picks each week that present value on the board. These picks will give you the best shot to come out a winner. Please feel free to comment below or reach out to me on twitter about the week’s action. Lastly, if you absolutely need more action than 5 games because you are a degenerate like the rest of us – you will find many games below the value picks in which I could make a lean towards.
Last Week: We scored a nice 3/5 for 60% on the value picks. Too bad my pick of the week in Minnesota looked like dog shit against public bet Northwestern. We will go right back at ‘em this week though and bet against those fraudulent bastards.
LUCK = TIMING + PREPARATION. GOOD LUCK!
#5: Ball State (+10.5) @ Northern Illinois – 3:30 pm
Both of these teams played quality opponents to start the year. Ball State lost by 14 to Toledo and Northwestern by 5, which are now ranked. NIU’s defense is nowhere near the caliber of these two teams. I think they are evenly matched and will take 10 free points in the MAC any day. Plus, NIU is always a public bet team.
#4: Northwestern @ Michigan (-7) – 3:30 pm
If I go with my strategy from last week to bet the dog when a total is below 40 because they cover 67% of the time, then I might come out a winner. However, the other 33% of the time you come out a loser. Here is my logic: Since the Stanford game NW has been a heavily bet public team and Vegas has lost a lot of money on their covers thus far. Why the hell would this line open at 10 if Vegas knows the public will slay NW? There is your answer right there – they want to make the line juicy so the public bets it down. I LOVE MICHIGAN in this game. Their QB is a transfer from Iowa and last year he put up a TD and beat this Wildcat squad by little more than a score. Now, NW does have a new freshman QB who has shown competence and presence under center but on the road, in the big house against a solid D and competent offense whom by the way is coached by Jim Harbaugh, I think he will falter. Michigan wins 21-3.
#3: TCU @ Kansas State (+9) – 7:30 pm
Once again, K-State finds it way into my value picks. Why – because they are coached by The Wizard, Bill Snyder, who knows how to handle potent offenses. This team, time and time again, controls the clock against high powered squads where I win outright is not out of the question. Now, if TCU gets up two scores it may be tough for K-State to play catch up because their offense is stagnant, at best, but if TCU plays like it did on the road at Minnesota, this should be an easy cover.
#2: There will be two picks in this slot because I cannot decide between them so we will play them BOTH!
Florida @ Mizzoooo (+5) – 7:30 pm
Bottom line, I still think Florida is partial trash. They schooled Ole Miss last week even after reports of a flu outbreak in the locker room. This is a prime spot for a letdown. Mizzooo is poo poo also, starting a true freshman at QB. However, did you know they have the number 2 ranked defense in the country? Florida’s only road game this year was at Kentucky, where they barely got out alive winning by 4/5. Love The Tigers in this spot.
Okie State @ West Virginia (-7) – 7pm
When you can get a non-ranked team as a favorite over a ranked team you take it. West Virginia committed 5 turnovers last week against Oklahoma in what looked like a semi-blowout loss. I expect them to not do that again and wallop an over-rated Okie State team who loves to pass. Did I mention WV has one of the best pass rushes in the country? The Mountaineers by double digits.
#1 VALUE PICK OF THE WEEK: Georgia @ Tennessee (+3) – 3:30 pm
Georgia is a mess right now and can’t get out of their own way. They showed that a pro-style defense could take them down any day. The Vols will play this game until their last breath. Expect a late surge by Tennessee to win this game OUTRIGHT.
BEST OVER/UNDER Picks of the Week:
California @ Utah over 61 – 10 pm
Everyone expects this game to go under but I like a high scoring game where both teams hit 30. Watch out, the Utes are public city @ -7. I love Cal scoring a late TD for the backdoor cover and the easy over.
UTES win 37-32
Middle Tennesse @ Western Kentucky over 66
This over is so chalky I can’t believe I’m taking it. But, love the fast pace and style of play. WKU is good for at least 40 and Middle Tenn can put up at least 20. Over city.
Duke @ Army under 47 – 12 pm
Army controls the clock with their run. I also like them at plus 12. Duke wins 17-10.
LEANS for the week:
SDSU @ Hawaii (-2.5) – 12 am
Line flipped and Hawaii at home. They have been on the road for 3 weeks and won’t have another home game until Halloween. SDSU is out their star running back but the other dude isn’t bad either. So buyer beware, but if you want action at midnight, this is the game.
Oklahoma @ Texas (+17) – 12 pm
Texas playing their biggest rival, I like the points. However, in their last two meetings Okie covered this number easily. Expect some razzle-dazzle from the Texas QB to lose by 10.
Illinois (+11) @ Iowa – 12 pm
Illinois and Iowa both upset Nebraska and Wisconsin, respectively, last week. Iowa did it with a little more competence and not so much luck, but nonetheless. The Hawkeyes could be due for a blowout and show the country they mean business or both these teams will play apathetic. I am hoping for the latter.
Middle Tennesse @ Western Kentucky (-8.5)
This is a game with a lot of points. Love WKU to get things going against a lack luster and not who they were last year squad. WKU wins big 54 – 27.