Recreational and Degenerate Gamblers Alike:
Each Friday you can come here to take a look at my Top 5 Picks against the spread. There are maybe 3-5 picks each week that present value on the board. These picks will give you the best shot to come out a winner. Please feel free to comment below or reach out to me on twitter about the week’s action. Lastly, if you absolutely need more action than 5 games because you are a degenerate like the rest of us – you will find many games below the value picks in which I could make a lean towards.
Last Week: We accomplished a nice 3/6 on the day for value picks. Tennessee also broke out a monster comeback to not only win outright but cover second half as well. Nice to have that game featured as the game of the week because the 50% return on picks put us in the green with a heftier bet.
This week I am going to roll with a lot of old favorite road dogs even though I cannot see them all covering again – however, my opinion is worthless and I have to play the numbers. I am also going against controversy and taking teams that have had awful news this week.
LUCK = TIMING + PREPARATION. GOOD LUCK!
#5 – Louisville (+7.5) @ Florida State – 12pm
Louisville may be 2-3 but they lost those three games by no more than 7 each time. Their defense is stellar and they always play up to competition. We called the NC State outright win a few weeks ago with them and after their bye I can see more of the same. The ‘Noles played a hard fought game vs in-state rival Miami last week and may be a little hungover. Their wins have also been less than impressive winning by 8 to Wake and 14 to BC. The Cardinals D is similar to Boston College but unlike them, their offense can put up a few points. LOVE THE CARDINALS at a TD or more.
#4 – Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (-2.5) – 4pm
This line opened at -8. You are telling me Spurrier is worth a 6 point swing? The books felt the Cocks were worth winning this game by more than a TD and I think nothing should change. Vanderbilt’s defense is noteworthy but the Cocks, at home, after Spurrier peaces out should play some inspired football and win by a field goal.
#3 – Oklahoma @ Kansas State (+3.5) – 3:30pm
Once again, how can you bet against The Wizard who is Bill Snyder, at home. The Wildcats lost last week to TCU after blowing an 18 point lead going into half. They also lost to Okie State after blowing an 8 point lead going into half. Okie is coming off a terrible loss to Texas and may play inspired football this week. Even though I think the points have finally caught up to K-State, you still need to roll with them. I hope they win outright, but if they lose by 6 you’ll know exactly what I am talking about.
#2 – Boston College (+15.5) @ Clemson – 7pm
This game follows the old adage “When totals are less than 40, take the road dog, for they cover 67% of the time”. I actually hate Boston College in this spot because they cannot score, but their defense is SICK NASTY. Clemson also sports a good D and a capable offense. This game has a Florida State feeling where BC lost 14-0. If BC can score one damn touchdown, they cover this game easily. If not, Clemson may win 17-0, 21-0. Either way, love the points in this one.
#1 – PLAY OF THE WEEK: Alabama @ Texas A&M (+4) – 3:30pm
This is an EPIC game. Here are a few notes on why I love the Aggies in this spot:
1.) 60% of the current public money is on ‘Bama
2.) The Crimson Tide have a good defense against pro-style offenses. However, the Aggies run a hurry-up, spread offense – much like Ole Miss (and we know what happened there)
3.) A&M probably has the most prolific receivers in college football this year. Expect a lot of big plays and catch-able bombs for TD’s. I do not think they win easy, but they definitely cover the 4.
4.) The only thing to be weary here is the fact that A&M is a little weak against the run. Expect a lot of rushes from Alabama, much like they did vs Georgia two weeks ago.
BEST OVER/UNDER BETS OF THE WEEK:
Michigan State @ Michigan OVER 40 – 3:30 pm
I love this over because no one else does. I also love the Spartans BUT so does the public. They have a lot of issues with their secondary. I’d stay away from a cover and root for the points.
Florida @ LSU UNDER 46 – 7pm
This game is going to blow. Both teams are gonna run, run, run. expect a score of the teens for both squads.
OTHER LEANS THIS WEEK:
Boise State @ Utah State (+9.5) – Friday 9pm
Public loves Boise State. Utah State may win this game outright playing tooth and nail.
Pitt @ Georgia Tech (-3.5) – 12:30pm
Public City but I think G-Tech finally breaks out and wins by less than 7.
NIU (-15.5) @ Miami Ohio – 2:30pm
Miami Ohio lost the last 30/32 vs the FBS. NIU rolls
Nebraska @ Minnesota (-2) – 3:30pm
Line Flip from +1
Oregon State @ Washington State (-8) – 4pm
Hawaii @ New Mexico State (-5.5) – 7pm
Hawaii has not scored one point on the road this year and can’t stop the run (let up 823 rushing yards and 10 TD’s past 3 weeks). The Lobos have the 11th best rushing offense. This was going to be one of my top 5 picks, but public city on the Lobos and they are stinky too.
USC (+6.5) @ Notre Dame – 7:30pm
Love the controversy. USC keeps it close.
Arizona (-8) @ Colorado – 9pm
Zona’ has the opportunity to win some games. They win by 3 scores.
Oregon @ Washington (-2.5) – 10:30pm
Oregon is a dead duck. Washington rolls by 10.