Recreational and Degenerate Gamblers Alike:
Each week this page will be dedicated to my NCAA Football Picks against the spread. You will find the early games posted up by Thursday morning. Stop back throughout the week for a preview of the weekend games with full analysis by weeks end. The games posted are in no means LOCKS of the week but they are definitely worth a look into.
– Mr. K.
**LAST WEEK was absolutely brutal. I saw many of my picks go down late in the 4th quarter.
I hope to not shit the bed this week. I will try to get back on top with Mr. Moneybags picks. If week 7 can yield 80%, then we are right back on track.
BYU @ UCF (-3) WIN
I am not touching this game. Without Taysom Hill, on the road, I cannot see how BYU can win. Losing your star player, on a short week, really weakens a teams spirit. Last week, his back up, C. Stewart, threw for 172 yards but was picked three times. UCF played Houston in Week 6 and forced them to throw 2 picks and go 2(1) on fumbles – winning the game outright 17-12. Expect BYU to try and control the clock with the run game. If UCF can get a few big plays out of their offense, they should win easily on Thursday night.
Washington State @ Stanford (-17) PUSH
Stanford lost in brutal fashion last week to the Irish. After having a successful drive eating much of the clock to take the lead, the Irish come right back and score the game winning TD on 4th and long. Unbelievable! Question is, is Standford so down on a short week they will not cover this game? I am really not sure but the line being so high tells me they can (I’d like this game more at 14). Here is why:
The week prior Stanford played a pass happy Huskies team, in Washington and shut down their passing game only allowing 98 yards. In that game, Stanford fumbled 3 times, losing 2 of them. They still pulled out the win and the push 20-13. Last week Washington State played at home vs Cal, posting a whopping 734 yards through the air. Wash State gave up 589 yards in the air, 2 special team kick return touchdowns and lost this game late in the 4th quarter. If Stanford shuts down the passing game and comes out focused on PAC-12 victories, they will win this game by two scores.
SDSU @ New Mexico (+6)
SDSU started a freshman QB last week, on the road in Fresno. He also threw 2 picks that game and the Aztecs lost 24-13. Their starter will probably not play again this week, leaving the game in the hands of the true freshman. New Mexico is not a good team but have seen one of their receivers (Wiggins) come back last week against UTSA, winning 21-9. Wiggins also works on special teams where he racked up 76 yards on 3 returns. I expect more of the same awkward play from the raw, freshman QB of SDSU allowing New Mexico to cover.
**Pick Analysis: Well, I was correct on saying that SDSU has a pretty bad freshman QB. He was 4/13 with 63 yards passing. New Mexico allowed The Aztecs to molest them on the ground, 246 yards by one dude. Awful, good game plan Lobos, I hope you lose every game from here on out.
Fresno has been on the up and up as of late, winning their last 3 contests by 9 or more points. UNLV poses no threat to this streak ending for they have one win to their name on the season. The last 3 teams to face them all covered: SJST (-9) 33-10, SDSU (-17) 34-17, Houston (-20.5). Even at home against a still weak Fresno squad they will not get it done.
**Pick Analysis: Fresno State is not a good team this year and they proved it last night, once again, by losing to UNLV. This pick shows you that momentum cannot last forever and even the shittiest squads (UNLV) can pull out wins against other shitty squads. Fresno also threw two picks and fumbled twice, losing 1. You cannot cover ten points by doing that.
Marshall is a great squad, scoring over 40 points all season long. Middle Tennessee is no slouch on offense either hence the posting of this game @ 73.5 total points. At 5-0, Marshall is the complete package on both sides of the ball. I expect them to win but Middle Tennessee will not leave without a fight. Take the points.
**Pick Analysis: Midd Tenn lost by 25. boooooo
Florida State (-24) @ Syracuse
All season long, the Seminole’s defense has let up some big scores. Last week, they came to life against Wake and allowed them a measly 3 points. Syracuse was slammed at home vs Cardinals, losing by 22. The season is getting worse and worse for the Orange and they are now out their option QB Hunt. Even with FSU starting a new center for this game against a loud ‘Cuse crowd, I expect them to get it done big. 40-6
Georgia @ Mizzzzooooo (+3)
Gurley out. I take Mizzzyyyyy
12: West Virginia @ Texas Tech (+5.5) WIN
With a turnover margin of -8 between these two teams, anything can happen. I expect Texas Tech to turn it around this week and win the game outright. However, with their costly mistakes losing them games, my money will be on the over @ 73.5. If I see abundant turn-overs in the red zone, taking this over will infuriate me.
**This is one of the plays of the week.
Ah, the old bagel match-up. With neither team posting a win yet this season, neither has any hope in salvaging the season. However, The Minutemen have at least scored points in their contests, making their losses more respectable. They put up 42 at Mia-Ohio and 42 @ Bowling Green. Kent State, on the other hand, hasn’t scored more than 14 points in some time. Someone has to win and it will be U-Mass.
2: Bowling Green (+1) @ Ohio WIN
Bowling Green scores as many points as they give up. Fortunately for them, Ohio has trouble scoring. BG wins.
3:30 Louisville (+10) @ Clemson WIN
I really do not like this game but with the way The Cardinals D is playing, I will take the points. My money will be on the under @51.
3:30 Michigan State @ Purdue (+21) WIN
Michigan State will without a doubt win this game. However, with the over going up 10 points throughout the week (46.5 to 55.5) I expect Purdue to score as well. Michigan scores 35, Purdue scores 17.
Everyone loves TCU this week. Line has moved from -10 to -7. Baylor covered last week against a stifling Texas squad but only scored 28 points. They play much better at home putting up huge numbers. In fact, they haven’t been home since the second week of the season. I expect a let down for a TCU squad who needed a defensive TD to beat Okie last week. Baylor’s D is also under rated, ranking 4th in the nation and letting up 267 yards a game. Baylor wins by at least 10.
3:30 Auburn @ Mississippi State
This game will be great to watch. I do not want to pick a side and instead will be rooting for the points. The o/u has dropped 9 since opening, but I like a shoot-out between two Heisman worthy QB’s.
Both teams score 30 easily.
UNC has given up 154 points over their last 3 games. Notre Dame’s offense has been winning games but not by much. At home against a poor UNC defense, I expect them to fully take advantage.
Okie State (-21) @ Kansas
This is the fun game of “bet against Kansas”. With an over/under set @ 50.5, and a spread @ 21 this game may be a trap for Okie to not cover. However, I cannot see Kansas scoring more than 10 and Okie State putting up at least 35. Okie wins, 36-10.
7: Alabama @ Arkansas (+10) WIN
I like ‘Bama coming out and playing with heart and passion after that loss against Ole Miss last week. A late miscue on defense lost them the game. However, Arkansas is catching ‘Bama at the right time. With clock control and A GREAT RUN GAME, Arkansas will cover this game. I can see the covering victor here be by 1 point either way (i.e. Ark loses by 9 or Bama wins by 11)
ECU (-16) @ USF
ECU played down to SMU last week, winning the game but not even coming close to covering the 40+ point spread. They have put up 45, 70, 28 and 33 points over their last 4 contests. If they can put up 40 again, I cannot see how USF can cover.
**This is money pick 2/2 for the week.
Memphis has played everyone in their own conference very tough. Their only two losses come at the hands of Miss and UCLA. Last week, they destroyed a Cincy team I had high hopes for. Houston just lost their second best receiver at practice on Tuesday. I do not see how they can overcome a loss against a D such as Memphis. Memphis wins by 14.
LSU @ Florida (+1)
At first glance, I would be all over LSU. Talented squad, with a few miscues along the way. Florida went with their Freshman QB Treon Harris after awful play from Jeff Driskel. Well, Treon is now suspended amidst allegations of sexual misconduct. Even with all of this the line is solid at 1 where it should have opened at at least 4. I will back Florida for this reason alone.
Ole Miss @ Texas A&M (-2)
Could be a let down game for Ole Miss, who historically does not play as well on the road anyways. The line also tells me this. Take A&M and the over in a tight game where each team reaches 30 points easily.
Wyoming (+5.5) @ Hawaii
Hawaii disappointed me last week, giving up a cover blowing TD with 12 seconds left last week against Rice. They play better at home but expect a tight game, regardless of the victor – take the points.
Please stop back at the end of college game day to view the analysis of my picks!!!!
ALL TIME Mr. Money Bags: 19 of 47 (40%)
I am an avid gambler whose hobby is researching games and trying to bust the books each and every weekend. The games listed have been analyzed up and down (email me, I will show you my spreadsheet!). By no means will I touch every game, but if I do it is sure to be ones I have listed on this page. Will you always be a winner with my picks? NO! Will I mush some bets? YES! But in the end, I usually end up on top. Please feel free to post your picks ATS and comment at will.
– Mr. K.